Scenarios of future mpox outbreaks among men who have sex with men: a modelling study based on cross-sectional seroprevalence data from the Netherlands, 2022.

BackgroundFollowing the 2022-2023 mpox outbreak, crucial knowledge gaps exist regarding orthopoxvirus-specific immunity in risk groups and its impact on future outbreaks.AimWe combined cross-sectional seroprevalence studies in two cities in the Netherlands with mathematical modelling to evaluate scenarios of future mpox outbreaks among men who have sex with men (MSM).MethodsSerum samples were obtained from 1,065 MSM attending Centres for Sexual Health (CSH) in Rotterdam or Amsterdam following the peak of the Dutch mpox outbreak and the introduction of vaccination. For MSM visiting the Rotterdam CSH, sera were linked to epidemiological and vaccination data. An in-house developed ELISA was used to detect vaccinia virus (VACV)-specific IgG. These observations were combined with published data on serial interval and vaccine effectiveness to inform a stochastic transmission model that estimates the risk of future mpox outbreaks.ResultsThe seroprevalence of VACV-specific antibodies was 45.4% and 47.1% in Rotterdam and Amsterdam, respectively. Transmission modelling showed that the impact of risk group vaccination on the original outbreak was likely small. However, assuming different scenarios, the number of mpox cases in a future outbreak would be markedly reduced because of vaccination. Simultaneously, the current level of immunity alone may not prevent future outbreaks. Maintaining a short time-to-diagnosis is a key component of any strategy to prevent new outbreaks.ConclusionOur findings indicate a reduced likelihood of large future mpox outbreaks among MSM in the Netherlands under current conditions, but emphasise the importance of maintaining population immunity, diagnostic capacities and disease awareness.

Mpox outbreak in the Netherlands, 2022: public health response, characteristics of the first 1,000 cases and protection of the first-generation smallpox vaccine.

In early May 2022, a global outbreak of mpox started among persons without travel history to regions known to be enzootic for monkeypox virus (MPXV). On 8 August 2022, the Netherlands reported its 1,000th mpox case, representing a cumulative incidence of 55 per million population, one of the highest cumulative incidences worldwide. We describe characteristics of the first 1,000 mpox cases in the Netherlands, reported between 20 May and 8 August 2022, within the context of the public health response. These cases were predominantly men who have sex with men aged 31-45 years. The vast majority of infections were acquired through sexual contact with casual partners in private or recreational settings including LGBTQIA+ venues in the Netherlands. This indicates that, although some larger upsurges occurred from point-source and/or travel-related events, the outbreak was mainly characterised by sustained transmission within the Netherlands. In addition, we estimated the protective effect of first-generation smallpox vaccine against moderate/severe mpox and found a vaccine effectiveness of 58% (95% CI: 17-78%), suggesting moderate protection against moderate/severe mpox symptoms on top of any possible protection by this vaccine against MPXV infection and disease. Communication with and supporting the at-risk population in following mitigation measures remains essential.

Risk factors for persistence of livestock-associated MRSA and environmental exposure in veal calf farmers and their family members: an observational longitudinal study.

OBJECTIVES: Livestock-associated methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (LA-MRSA) emergence is a major public health concern. This study was aimed at assessing risk factors for persistently carrying MRSA in veal calf farmers and their family members. We also evaluate the dynamics of MRSA environmental load during the veal-calf production cycle. DESIGN: Observational, longitudinal, repeated cross-sectional study. SETTING: 52 veal calf farms in the Netherlands. PARTICIPANTS: From the end of 2010 to the end of 2011, a total of 211 farmers, family members and employees were included in the study. PRIMARY OUTCOME AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Nasal swabs were taken from participants on days 0, 4, 7 and week 12. A persistent MRSA carrier was defined as a person positive for MRSA on days 0, 4 and 7. Participants filled in an extensive questionnaire to identify potential risk factors and confounders. For estimation of MRSA prevalence in calves and environmental contamination, animal nasal swabs and Electrostatic Dust Collectors were taken on day 0 and week 12. RESULTS: The presence of potential animal reservoirs (free-ranging farm cats and sheep) and the level of contact with veal calves was positively associated with persistent MRSA carriage. Interestingly, at the end of the study (week 12), there was a twofold rise in animal prevalence and a significantly higher MRSA environmental load in the stables was found on farms with MRSA carriers. CONCLUSIONS: This study supports the hypothesis that environmental contamination with MRSA plays a role in the acquisition of MRSA in farmers and their household members and suggests that other animal species should also be targeted to implement effective control strategies.

Self-sampling is appropriate for detection of Staphylococcus aureus: a validation study.

BACKGROUND: Studies frequently use nasal swabs to determine Staphylococcus aureus carriage. Self-sampling would be extremely useful in an outhospital research situation, but has not been studied in a healthy population. We studied the similarity of self-samples and investigator-samples in nares and pharynxes of healthy study subjects (hospital staff) in the Netherlands. METHODS: One hundred and five nursing personnel members were sampled 4 times in random order after viewing an instruction paper: 1) nasal self-sample, 2) pharyngeal self-sample, 3) nasal investigator-sample, and 4) pharyngeal investigator-sample. RESULTS: For nasal samples, agreement is 93% with a kappa coefficient of 0.85 (95% CI 0.74-0.96), indicating excellent agreement, for pharyngeal samples agreement is 83% and the kappa coefficient is 0.60 (95% CI 0.43-0.76), indicating good agreement. In both sampling sites self-samples even detected more S. aureus than investigator-samples. CONCLUSIONS: This means that self-samples are appropriate for detection of Staphylococcus aureus and methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus.